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Ukážeme si, jak si snadno a rychle můžeme pořídit jednoduchý, ale přesto funkční indikátor paniky na akciovém trhu. Stačí navštívit stránky www.google.com/trends a zadat správné klíčové slovo. A jaké jiné klíčové slovo indikuje paniku lépe než medvědí trh -- bear market?
Následující graf ukazuje, jak často vyhledávali Američané tento termín počínaje rokem 2004. Můžeme si všimnout, že hodnoty za listopad 2018 se prakticky rovnají lednu 2008 (kdy byl ještě čas akcie prodat) anebo březnu 2009 (kdy naopak byl ideální čas koupit akcie -- tehdy ovšem největší panika již odeznívala, jak je rovněž vidět.)
S panikou souvisí i termín recese (recession). Vidíme podobný, ačkoli ne úplně stejný obraz. Je pozoruhodné, že termín "recession" byl během prosince 2018 (i podle neúplných dat) nejpopulárnější od roku 2009. Tip: ve volbě "categories" si zkuste volit "Business & Industrial" a "Finance". Výsledky vás zaujmou.
A jaká investiční doporučení z indikátoru paniky vyplývají? To už je na vás.
Tip: Máte již novou knihu INVESTICE: NOVÁ STRATEGIE?
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Pavel KohoutInvestor, vývojář, autor. ArchÍVY
August 2020
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